Welcome the rare investment opportunities in the past 5 years, the wave of 5G replacement will be magnificent
The electronics industry has entered a period of high prosperity
2020 Economic Outlook
In 2019, the 5G commercial launch will be accelerated, and the network speed-up and fee-reduction will make the screen faster, and high-end 5G mobile phones will be unveiled, but the price is generally expensive, and "showing muscle" means more. In 2020, with the development of information technologies such as AI, 5G, and the Internet of Things, the electronics industry will enter a boom cycle. Investors will face rare investment opportunities in the past five years, and the wave of 5G replacement will be even more magnificent.
文 / Deng Yuchen, Zhao Fangyuan, Zhang Lu, Ni Ming
5G base station: high power consumption and high cost giants have built together
2019 is considered the first year of "5G" commercial use. On October 31, 2019, the three major operators officially announced the launch of 5G commercial. "At present, China has built 113,000 base stations for 5G networks, and it is expected to reach 130,000 by the end of the year." Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the opening ceremony of the World 5G Conference.
The China Academy of Information and Communications released a 5G achievement report, proposing that "2020 will be a large-scale network construction of 5G in China, and it will also be a year of continuous prosperity and rapid popularization of terminals. The 5G network coverage area will become wider and wider. On December 31, 2019, the Guangdong Communications Administration stated that in 2020, it will strive to achieve 5G network coverage in all prefecture-level cities. At the same time, 5G + education, 5G + medical, 5G + industrial Internet ... This will further accelerate the application of 5G, and will benefit more vertical industries.
"5G base stations have high power consumption, increased tower resistance, and high operating costs." Liu Zhijun, general manager of the network operation department of China Telecom Co., Ltd. Guangdong Branch, said that China Telecom and China Unicom have chosen to jointly build 5G. Announced that 5G construction will cooperate with State Grid.
Mobile phone industry: 5G mobile phones will break out in price war
Hotness: ★★★★ ☆
The decline in mobile phone shipments in 2019 is foregone. According to data from the China Information and Communications Institute, in November 2019, the overall domestic mobile phone market shipments were 34.842 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The industry's "Matthew Effect" has become increasingly prominent. The data shows that Huawei's market share in the third quarter reached 42%, and the remaining three Android phone manufacturers' market share totaled only 44.7%. In 2020, the acceleration of 5G commercialization will stimulate consumers' desire to switch planes, triggering a new round of price wars, and competition in the low-end market will be particularly fierce.
Recently, several mobile phone manufacturers including OPPO, Huawei, and Xiaomi released 5G mobile phones, of which the lowest price 5G mobile phone only cost 1999 yuan. At present, 5G mobile phones have become the key release targets of mobile phone manufacturers this year. The organization expects shipments of the mobile phone industry to continue to decline this year, with only 5G mobile phone shipments growing rapidly. This also makes many mobile phone manufacturers choose to "bet" 5G.
At present, ZTE and Xiaomi both propose to launch at least 10 5G mobile phones in 2020, and Vivo will launch at least 5 5G models. It is reported that 4 of the 5 new products released by Apple in 2020 will also be 5G models. Wu Qiang, vice president of OPPO and president of global sales, once said that the flagship phones of almost all brands in 2020 are expected to be 5G mobile phones.
On the other hand, at the end of last year, many 4G models of mobile phone brands were discounted in order to return funds faster and reduce inventory pressure. Prospect: IDC expects that more than 20% of 5G mobile phones will be below the price of 2,000 yuan in 2020. New Age Securities analyst Wu Jisen pointed out that the development and penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will exceed market expectations in 2020, and the overall component value of 5G mobile phones will be significantly higher than that of 4G mobile phones. The upstream and downstream supply chains will obviously benefit. The tide will be even more magnificent.
Chip industry: cyclical inflection point is approaching
Hotness: ★★★★★ The global semiconductor market is gradually picking up in the second half of 2019. 2019 is a turning point for the domestic integrated circuit industry. Hua Jian Securities analyst Hu Jian pointed out that benefiting from the demand for 5G chips and the strengthening of the domestic substitution trend of the IC industry chain, it is expected that the domestic semiconductor industry will usher in the rapid development period of the entire industry chain in 2020.
According to WSTS (Global Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association) forecast, the global semiconductor market sales in 2019 are expected to decline by 12.8% to 409 billion US dollars, of which the largest decline in the field of chip memory will reach 33%.
However, under the influence of many aspects of the downstream industry chain including 5G, Internet of Things (IOT), AI, automotive electronics, blockchain, and new energy, many chip manufacturers have experienced a shortage of capacity in the second half of the year.
Foresight: In sharp contrast to the global market, China's integrated circuit industry experienced double-digit growth in the first three quarters. According to statistics from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, from January to September 2019, China's integrated circuit industry sales were 504.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%.
At the same time, the demand for domestic chip replacement is increasing. In the third quarter of 2019, the performance of domestic leading IC companies such as SMIC, Zhuo Shengwei, Huiding Technology, and Changdian Technology improved significantly. According to IFinD data of Flush Flush, as of December 30, Shenwan Semiconductor Industry Index rose by 120.4%, ranking first among many secondary sectors.
Smart home appliances: annual output value doubled in eight years
The shipment of smart home appliances increased by 22.8% in the first half of last year, which attracted major home appliance manufacturers to accelerate the intelligent layout of their products. In 2013, the output value of smart home appliances in China was 100 billion yuan. By 2020, this number will reach 1 trillion yuan, which has increased by about 10 times in 8 years.
Foresight: Looking forward to 2020, the new demand will show an inflection point. The area of completed housing has been increasing for 4 consecutive months since August 2019, and the sales area of commercial housing has been increasing for 5 consecutive months. At the same time, a series of policies have also urged home appliances to be green, intelligent, and upgraded.
From the point of view of channels, leading white power companies clean up the competition track through price wars or raising standards. The market share of head companies is expected to be further increased. The profit dividends brought by the trend of high-end branding will continue to strengthen; the kitchen appliance sector Leading companies are expected to benefit from the increase in the proportion of hardcover housing, which will bring dividends from engineering channels; live streaming of emerging brands and innovation in e-commerce models will bring breakthrough opportunities to small home appliances.
In the context of 5G commercial use, it is expected that the scale of the smart home industry will exceed 400 billion in 2020, the rate of color TV intelligence will reach 100%, and the rate of white goods, household appliances, and kitchen appliances will reach 45%, 28%, and 25, respectively. %.
Reprinted at: http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2020/01-02/9049233.shtml